Seasonal Outlook – December 2018

Environment

East Coast of NSW have been receiving welcomed rain (showers) which has enabled spring / summer pasture growth in most areas, easing the pressure of finished feed demand in those areas lucky enough to receive some.

Further west rain has been more scattered and although welcomed it has arrived too late to be of any benefit and even in some areas has caused more issues for those areas hoping to start heading their grain or cutting for hay.

Although the East Coast is enjoying pasture growth, it would only take two weeks of true summer heat to limit growth unless continued rain is experienced.

 

Raw Materials

With the slowing demand for finished feed on the east coast due to rain and destocking Vella Stock Feeds are anticipating the supply of raw materials used within the stock feed industry to be a little more consistent for the moment.

Palm Kernel Meal is now available for the eastern states, this too has aided the shortage in availability of suitable raw material albeit only used in low volumes within a diet.

WA has had a reasonable harvest and appears, and volumes will cover the shortages being experienced in the eastern states, this will enable us not having to import grain from overseas and therefore protect the Australian grain industry biosecurity.

As we head into the festive season and weather suited to people getting out and about we see an increase in flour demand which enables more consistent levels of co-products that can assist with the manufacture of finished feed also.

Potential for a processed protein meal coming to Australia in the new year to help supplement with the lack of Canola yields (failed crop) experienced in NSW and VIC.

 

Looking Forward

Given a lot of livestock have been finished off and the splashes of rain in most areas, with the hope of ongoing rain falls there is a fair chance that pricing will ease slightly.   There are a lot of “ducks” to line up both nationally and worldwide for this to happen but the market place is more positive than the last 5 months, fingers crossed.